4
TOBACCO BUSINESS
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2013
Perspective from a
“Bold Forecaster:”
an E-cig Paradigm
PUBLISHER’S LETTER
BY ed o’connor
W
hile a guest of Uncle Sam during the Vietnam era,
I worked for a bird colonel on the make for his first
star—all spit and polish, replete with a swagger stick
in the tradition of the “cheerio British boys.” Stylistically, Col.
Piper was a leftover from the MacArthur days. He flew his
plane, a beloved single engine Piper Cub (no relation) with the
tricycle landing gear, and loved it dearly. His favorite oft-used
expression? “There are old pilots and there are bold pilots,
but there are no old, bold pilots.” This embedded itself in my
memory.
Today, with apologies to his honor the colonel, I modify his
soliloquy and add it to my own repertoire: “There are old fore-
casters and there are bold forecasters, but there are no old,
bold forecasters.”
The tobacco industry is running pell-mell into the electronic
cigarette future chanting, “Happy days are here again!”…and
this is probably so. But let’s consider the bold forecaster per-
spective and paradigm on the positives and negatives:
1) Not yet objectively concluded: To what extent does the
coolness of the e-cigarette spawn new younger nicotine tak-
ers who migrate to cigarettes or who become addicted to
nicotine? Negative for e-cigarettes.
2) To what extent are current young cigarette smokers mi-
grating to e-cigarettes? Positive for e-cigarettes.
3) Is the e-cigarette more likely to attract new nicotine takers
than cigarettes? Call it a wash.
4) The preponderance of anecdotal evidence suggests that
e-cigarettes are vastly safer than cigarettes. This is positive for
e-cigarettes, although marketers can’t make this claim.
5) Key public health representatives are screaming the de-
crial of e-cigarettes. Negative for e-cigarettes.
6) Key public health representatives are screaming the ben-
efits of e-cigarettes versus the use of traditional cigarettes (i.e.
Doctors Siegel, Rodu, Nitzken and Phillips). Positive for e-cig-
arettes.
7) Big Tobacco has entered the market—a bet on the future
viability of e-cigarettes. Positive for e-cigarettes.
8) The industry is encouraging product standards. Positive
for e-cigarettes.
9) The FDA is beginning to recognize the anecdotal evi-
dence supporting e-cigarettes. Positive for e-cigarettes.
10) The FDA is under pressure from anti-tobacco factions
and some members of the political community to legislate e-
cigarettes. Negative for e-cigarettes in the short term.
11) The FDAmandate requires (and their recent affirmations
support) science-based conclusions. Uncertain on this one...
but if the conclusions are based upon untainted science and
the preponderance of the evidence, then this is positive for
e-cigarettes.
12) The FDA appears less concerned with the health of cur-
rent smokers and more concerned with the uncertain numbers
of future e-cigarette users. Does this mindset smack of falla-
cious thinking akin to preventing innoculation for the diseases
they seek to eliminate due to inhaled smoke such as lung can-
cer and heart disease, while focusing on eradication of tobacco
in its potentially most benign form; sort of the reverse of “can’t
see the forest for the trees.”? In reality, the forest may not even
exist...but triage does. Hard to see this as a positive, but longer-
term logic supports a more positive outcome.
Some believe the FDA must do something to satisfy its
best-to-date judgment regarding the regulation of electronic
cigarettes, and to mitigate the heating up of public health de-
mands. If so, budding conventional wisdom attributed to un-
intentional alleged FDA leaks (in other words, common sense)
suggests an end to flavored product and to arms-length trans-
actions (i.e. Internet and catalog sales to unlicensed individu-
als and companies). This would be a negative for e-cig sales in
the short term, but perhaps a necessary evil for the long term
viability of this generation’s tobacco product.
Cut and paste this letter to wherever you cut, paste and save
your stuff. Rename it as “Memoir of a Bold Forecaster.”
Best to you,
P.S. What
does
happen to old, bold forecasters?!
